Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan

 

  Abstract

How are civilians' attitudes toward combatants affected by exposure to violence during wartime? Does civilian victimization affect these attitudes differently depending on the perpetrator's identity? We investigate the determinants of wartime civilian attitudes towards combatants using a survey experiment across 204 villages in five Pashtun-dominated provinces of Afghanistan --- the very heart of the Taliban insurgency. We use endorsement experiments to indirectly elicit truthful answers to sensitive questions about attitudes toward combatants. Our findings demonstrate that civilian attitudes toward the combatants are asymmetric. Harm inflicted by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is met with reduced ISAF support and increased Taliban support, but Taliban-inflicted harm does not translate into greater ISAF support. We combine a multistage sampling design with multilevel statistical modeling to estimate support levels for ISAF and the Taliban at the individual, village, and district levels, permitting a more fine-grained analysis of wartime attitudes than previously possible. (Last revised, December 2011)

© Kosuke Imai
 Last modified: Tue Sep 20 16:32:23 EDT 2011