Kosuke Imai's Publications and Manuscripts

Lyall, Jason, Kosuke Imai, and Yuki Shiraito. ``Dropping a Dime: Coethnic Bias and Wartime Informing.''

Zhao, Shandong, David A. van Dyk, and Kosuke Imai. ``Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Non-Binary Treatments.''

Blair, Graeme, Kosuke Imai, and Jason Lyall. ``Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan.''

Imai, Kosuke and In Song Kim. ``On the Use of Linear Fixed Effects Regression Models for Causal Inference.''

Tingley, Dustin, Teppei Yamamoto, Luke Keele, and Kosuke Imai. ``mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis.''

Hirano, Shigeo, Kosuke Imai, Yuki Shiraito, and Masaki Taniguchi. ``Policy Positions in Mixed Member Electoral Systems: Evidence from Japan.''

Publications in English

Refereed Journal Articles

Imai, Kosuke and Marc Ratkovic. ``Covariate Balancing Propensity Score.'' Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Statistical Methodology), Forthcoming.

Lyall, Jason, Graeme Blair, and Kosuke Imai. ``Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan.'' American Political Science Review, Forthcoming. Winner of the Pi Sigma Alpha Award.

Imai, Kosuke and Teppei Yamamoto. (2013). ``Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Causal Mechanisms: Revisiting Evidence from Framing Experiments.'' Political Analysis, Vol. 21, No. 2 (Spring), pp. 141-171. (lead article)

Imai, Kosuke and Marc Ratkovic. (2013). ``Estimating Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Randomized Program Evaluation.'' Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 7, No. 1 (March), pp. 443-470. Winner of the Tom Ten Have Memorial Award.

Imai, Kosuke, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2013). ``Experimental Designs for Identifying Causal Mechanisms.'' (with discussions) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), Vol. 176, No. 1 (January), pp. 5-51. (lead article) Read before the Royal Statistical Society in March, 2012.

Imai, Kosuke, and Dustin Tingley. (2012). ``A Statistical Method for Empirical Testing of Competing Theories.'' American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 56, No. 1 (January), pp. 218-236.

Blair, Graeme and Kosuke Imai. (2012). ``Statistical Analysis of List Experiments.'' Political Analysis, Vol. 20, No. 1 (Winter), pp. 47-77.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke Keele, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2011). ``Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies.'' American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, No. 4 (November), pp. 765-789.

Bullock, Will, Kosuke Imai, and Jacob Shapiro. (2011). ``Statistical Analysis of Endorsement Experiments: Measuring Support for Militant Groups in Pakistan.'' Political Analysis, Vol. 19, No. 4 (Autumn), pp. 363-384. (lead article)

Imai, Kosuke. (2011). ``Multivariate Regression Analysis for the Item Count Technique.'' Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 106, No. 494 (June), pp. 407-416. (featured article)

Imai, Kosuke, and Aaron Strauss. (2011). ``Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects from Randomized Experiments, with Application to the Optimal Planning of the Get-out-the-vote Campaign.'' Political Analysis, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Winter), pp. 1-19. (lead article) Winner of Political Analysis Editors' Choice Award.

Ho, Daniel E., Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Elizabeth Stuart. (2011). ``MatchIt: Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference.'' Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 42, No. 8 (Special Volume on Political Methodology), pp. 1-28.

Imai, Kosuke, Ying Lu, and Aaron Strauss. (2011). ``eco: R Package for Ecological Inference in 2 x 2 Tables.'' Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 42, No. 5 (Special Volume on Political Methodology), pp. 1-23.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke Keele, and Dustin Tingley. (2010). ``A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis.'' Psychological Methods, Vol. 15, No. 4 (December), pp. 309-334. (lead article)

Imai, Kosuke, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2010). ``Causal Inference with Differential Measurement Error: Nonparametric Identification and Sensitivity Analysis.'' American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 54, No. 2 (April), pp. 543-560.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke Keele, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2010). ``Identification, Inference, and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Mediation Effects.'' Statistical Science, Vol. 25, No. 1 (February), pp. 51-71.

Imai, Kosuke, Gary King, and Clayton Nall. (2009). ``The Essential Role of Pair Matching in Cluster-Randomized Experiments, with Application to the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Evaluation.'' (with discussions and rejoinder) Statistical Science, Vol. 24, No. 1 (February), pp. 29-53.

King, Gary, Emmanuela Gakidou, Kosuke Imai, Jason Lakin, Ryan T. Moore, Clayton Nall, Nirmala Ravishankar, Manett Vargas, Martha María Téllez-Rojo, Juan Eugenio Hernández Ávila, Mauricio Hernández Ávila, and Héctor Hernández Llamas. (2009). ``Public Policy for the Poor? A Randomised Assessment of the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Programme." (with a comment) The Lancet, Vol. 373, No. 9673 (April), pp. 1447-1454.

Imai, Kosuke. (2009). ``Statistical Analysis of Randomized Experiments with Nonignorable Missing Binary Outcomes: An Application to a Voting Experiment.'' Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 58, No. 1 (February), pp. 83-104.

Imai, Kosuke, Gary King, and Olivia Lau. (2008). ``Toward A Common Framework of Statistical Analysis and Development.'' Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 17, No. 4 (December), pp. 892-913.

Imai, Kosuke. (2008). ``Variance Identification and Efficiency Analysis in Randomized Experiments under the Matched-Pair Design.'' Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 27, No. 24 (October), pp. 4857-4873.

Ho, Daniel E., and Kosuke Imai. (2008). ``Estimating Causal Effects of Ballot Order from a Randomized Natural Experiment: California Alphabet Lottery, 1978-2002.'' Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 72, No. 2 (Summer), pp. 216-240.

Imai, Kosuke, Gary King, and Elizabeth A. Stuart. (2008). ``Misunderstandings among Experimentalists and Observationalists about Causal Inference.'' Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), Vol. 171, No. 2 (April), pp. 481-502. Reprinted in Field Experiments and their Critics, D. Teele ed. (2013), New Haven: Yale University Press, Forthcoming.

Imai, Kosuke, Ying Lu, and Aaron Strauss. (2008). ``Bayesian and Likelihood Inference for 2 x 2 Ecological Tables: An Incomplete Data Approach.'' Political Analysis, Vol. 16, No. 1 (Winter), pp. 41-69.

Imai, Kosuke. (2008).``Sharp Bounds on the Causal Effects in Randomized Experiments with ``Truncation-by-Death''.'' Statistics & Probability Letters, Vol. 78, No. 2 (February), pp. 144-149.

Imai, Kosuke, and Samir Soneji. (2007). ``On the Estimation of Disability-Free Life Expectancy: Sullivan's Method and Its Extension.'' Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 102, No. 480 (December), pp. 1199-1211.

Horiuchi, Yusaku, Kosuke Imai, and Naoko Taniguchi. (2007). ``Designing and Analyzing Randomized Experiments: Application to a Japanese Election Survey Experiment.'' American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 51, No. 3 (July), pp. 669-687.

Ho, Daniel E., Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Elizabeth A. Stuart. (2007). ``Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference.'' Political Analysis, Vol. 15, No.3 (Summer), pp. 199-236. (lead article) Winner of Miller Prize.

Ho, Daniel E., and Kosuke Imai. (2006). ``Randomization Inference with Natural Experiments: An Analysis of Ballot Effects in the 2003 California Recall Election.'' Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 101, No. 475 (September), pp. 888-900.

Imai, Kosuke, and David A. van Dyk. (2005). ``MNP: R Package for Fitting the Multinomial Probit Model.'' Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 14, No. 3 (May), pp. 1-32. abstract reprinted in Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, (2005) Vol. 14, No. 3 (September), p. 747.

Imai, Kosuke. (2005). ``Do Get-Out-The-Vote Calls Reduce Turnout? The Importance of Statistical Methods for Field Experiments.'' American Political Science Review, Vol. 99, No. 2 (May), pp. 283-300.

Imai, Kosuke, and David A. van Dyk. (2005). ``A Bayesian Analysis of the Multinomial Probit Model Using Marginal Data Augmentation.'' Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 124, No. 2 (February), pp. 311-334.

Imai, Kosuke, and David A. van Dyk. (2004). ``Causal Inference With General Treatment Regimes: Generalizing the Propensity Score.'' Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 99, No. 467 (September), pp. 854-866.

Imai, Kosuke, and Gary King. (2004). ``Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election?.'' Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 2, No. 3 (September), pp.537-549. Our analysis is a part of The New York Times article, ``How Bush Took Florida: Mining the Overseas Absentee Vote'' By David Barstow and Don van Natta Jr. July 15, 2001, Page 1, Column 1.

Invited Contributions

Imai, Kosuke, Gary King, and Elizabeth A. Stuart. (2013). ``Misunderstandings among Experimentalists and Observationalists about Causal Inference.'' in Field Experiments and their Critics, D. Teele ed., New Haven: Yale University Press, Forthcoming. First printed in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), Vol. 171, No. 2 (April).

Imai, Kosuke, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2013). ``Reply to Discussions of ``Experimental Designs for Identifying Causal Mechanisms.'' Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), Vol. 173, No. 1 (January), pp. 46-49.

Imai, Kosuke. (2012). ``Comments: Improving Weighting Methods for Causal Mediation Analysis.'' Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 293-295.

Imai, Kosuke. (2011). ``Introduction to the Virtual Issue: Past and Future Research Agenda on Causal Inference.'' Political Analysis, Virtual Issue: Causal Inference and Political Methodology.

Imai, Kosuke, Booil Jo, and Elizabeth A. Stuart. (2011). ``Commentary: Using Potential Outcomes to Understand Causal Mediation Analysis.'' Multivariate Behavioral Research, Vol. 46, No. 5, pp. 842-854.

Imai, Kosuke, Luke Keele, Dustin Tingley, and Teppei Yamamoto. (2010). ``Causal Mediation Analysis Using R,'' in Advances in Social Science Research Using R, ed. H. D. Vinod, New York: Springer (Lecture Notes in Statistics), pp. 129-154.

Imai, Kosuke, Gary King, and Clayton Nall. (2009). ``Rejoinder: Matched Pairs and the Future of Cluster-Randomized Experiments.'' Statistical Science, Vol. 24, No. 1 (February), pp. 65-72.

Other Publications and Manuscripts

Goldstein, Daniel, Kosuke Imai, Anja S. Goritz, and Peter M. Gollwitzer. (2008). ``Nudging Turnout: Mere Measurement and Implementation Planning of Intentions to Vote .''

Ho, Daniel E. and Kosuke Imai. (2004). ``The Impact of Partisan Electoral Regulation: Ballot Effects from the California Alphabet Lottery, 1978-2002,'' Princeton Law & Public Affairs Paper No. 04-001: Harvard Public Law Working Paper No. 89.

Imai, Kosuke. (2003) Essays on Political Methodology, Ph.D. Thesis. Department of Government, Harvard University. Winner of the Harvard University Toppan Prize for Best Dissertation in Political Science.

Imai, Kosuke. (2003) ``Review of Jeff Gill's Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach,'' The Political Methodologist, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 9-10.

Imai, Kosuke, and Jeremy Weinstein. (2000) ``Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War,'' Harvard University Center for International Development, Working Paper Series, No. 51.